At least 1 SpaceX Falcon 9 mission in 2018 is a failure with payload damage or loss.

Created by kuudes 18 days ago; known on 2019-01-01

  • kuudes estimated 2% 18 days ago
  • kuudes said “https://imgur.com/a/gc1gg <- model of SpaceX learning curve18 days ago
  • Athrithalix estimated 45% and said “I don’t think that graph actually contains the strength of information you want it to. For that level of confidence you’d expect one failure in about 2000 launches.17 days ago
  • kuudes said “Indeed. My current estimate for payload failure risk is about 1/3210 per launch in 2018, in decimals about 312/100000. We’ll see how it goes.17 days ago

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