At least 1 SpaceX Falcon 9 mission in 2018 is a failure with payload damage or loss.

Created by kuudes on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.

  • kuudes estimated 2% on 2018-02-05
  • kuudes said “https://imgur.com/a/gc1gg <- model of SpaceX learning curveon 2018-02-05
  • Athrithalix estimated 45% and said “I don’t think that graph actually contains the strength of information you want it to. For that level of confidence you’d expect one failure in about 2000 launches.on 2018-02-05
  • kuudes said “Indeed. My current estimate for payload failure risk is about 1/3210 per launch in 2018, in decimals about 312/100000. We’ll see how it goes.on 2018-02-05
  • Bruno Parga said “There was the Zuma payload that was lost before the prediction was made, but apparently the client was to blame for that (the fault was in the payload adapter). Does this count?on 2018-12-31
  • kuudes said “per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches all 2018 launches have been success without payload loss. I judge this as wrong per that.on 2019-01-01
  • kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.

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