At least 1 SpaceX Falcon 9 mission in 2018 is a failure with payload damage or loss.

Created by kuudes on 2018-02-05; known in 13 days

  • kuudes estimated 2% on 2018-02-05
  • kuudes said “https://imgur.com/a/gc1gg <- model of SpaceX learning curveon 2018-02-05
  • Athrithalix estimated 45% and said “I don’t think that graph actually contains the strength of information you want it to. For that level of confidence you’d expect one failure in about 2000 launches.on 2018-02-05
  • kuudes said “Indeed. My current estimate for payload failure risk is about 1/3210 per launch in 2018, in decimals about 312/100000. We’ll see how it goes.on 2018-02-05

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