PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of 2018.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-02.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2018-02-06
• RobertLumley estimated 65% on 2018-02-06
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% and said “If I’m reading it right he’s currently at 18%, with the next highest at 14%.” on 2018-02-06
• Temeraire estimated 25% and said “He currently has a very small lead, but how much new evidence will come out by then to upseat him? btw Scott should probably buy the relevant PredictIt contract if he really thinks 60%” on 2018-02-07
• ccokeefe estimated 33% on 2018-02-07
• two2thehead said “I hate to criticize predictions, but please change it to something like “…at the end of 2018”. It lowers mistakes and makes it easier to read when you are skimming through lots of potentially similar predictions.” on 2018-02-08
• Jayson Virissimo changed the deadline from “on 2019-01-01” and changed their prediction from “PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of year.” on 2018-02-09
• pmuench estimated 33% on 2018-02-16
• ccokeefe estimated 40% on 2018-02-17
• splorridge said “predicting the status of other prediction websites? Meta” on 2018-03-12
• davatk estimated 23% on 2018-04-23
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2018-09-02
• Baeboo estimated 20% on 2018-12-12
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-02.