One or more of Cipriani et al will respond to Scott Alexander's article on their new paper

Created by enolan on 2018-02-27; known on 2018-03-27; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-03-27.

• enolan estimated 40% on 2018-02-27
• embolism estimated 8% on 2018-03-02
• Ben Doherty estimated 60% on 2018-03-21
• enolan   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-03-27.