Brexit will successfully have take place by August 2019

Created by Finma on 2018-03-03; known on 2019-01-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-02.

• Finma estimated 63% on 2018-03-03
• Athrithalix estimated 14% and said “You know the transition period was ‘indefinitely extended’ a few days ago?” on 2018-03-05
• Finma estimated 20% on 2018-03-08
• Finma estimated 21% and said “@Athrithalix I did not!” on 2018-03-08
• Medea estimated 15% on 2018-03-09
• Bruno Parga said “This needs clarification. As things stand, the UK will cease to be a member of the EU on 2019-03-29 11pm British time, as per Article 50. This is technically Brexit being successful ─ the transition period comes after Brexit.” on 2018-03-10
• davatk estimated 70% on 2018-04-30
• kiimberlie estimated 75% on 2018-05-16
• Cato estimated 50% and said “Current betting odds for March 29: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4672/Will-the-United-Kingdom-officially-exit-the-European-Union-by-March-29” on 2019-01-02
• Baeboo estimated 47% on 2019-01-02
• Cato estimated 40% on 2019-01-07
• Baeboo estimated 6% on 2019-04-13
• Cato estimated 1% on 2019-04-13
• Baeboo estimated 4% on 2019-04-13
• Cato said “Are we all interpreting this as resolving 2019-08-01, swapping MM and DD in the original posting?” on 2019-04-15
• Cato said “August 2019 has come and gone, and Brexit has not yet taken place. I’m judging this false.” on 2019-09-02
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-09-02.