Brexit will successfully have take place by August 2019

Created by Finma on 2018-03-03; known on 2019-01-08; judged wrong by Cato 19 days ago.

  • Finma estimated 63% on 2018-03-03
  • Athrithalix estimated 14% and said “You know the transition period was ‘indefinitely extended’ a few days ago?on 2018-03-05
  • Finma estimated 20% on 2018-03-08
  • Finma estimated 21% and said “@Athrithalix I did not!on 2018-03-08
  • Medea estimated 15% on 2018-03-09
  • Bruno Parga said “This needs clarification. As things stand, the UK will cease to be a member of the EU on 2019-03-29 11pm British time, as per Article 50. This is technically Brexit being successful ─ the transition period comes after Brexit.on 2018-03-10
  • davatk estimated 70% on 2018-04-30
  • kiimberlie estimated 75% on 2018-05-16
  • Cato estimated 50% and said “Current betting odds for March 29: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4672/Will-the-United-Kingdom-officially-exit-the-European-Union-by-March-29on 2019-01-02
  • Baeboo estimated 47% on 2019-01-02
  • Cato estimated 40% on 2019-01-07
  • Baeboo estimated 6% on 2019-04-13
  • Cato estimated 1% on 2019-04-13
  • Baeboo estimated 4% on 2019-04-13
  • Cato said “Are we all interpreting this as resolving 2019-08-01, swapping MM and DD in the original posting?on 2019-04-15
  • Cato said “August 2019 has come and gone, and Brexit has not yet taken place. I’m judging this false.19 days ago
  • Cato   judged this prediction wrong 19 days ago.

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