Another Soyuz Fregat stage suffers some form of failure that leads to the loss or incorrect insertion of one or more satellites in the next two years.

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22; known on 2019-03-22; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-22.

  • Athrithalix estimated 40% on 2018-03-22
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 55% on 2018-04-04
  • pranomostro estimated 50% on 2018-11-25
  • Athrithalix   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-03-22.
  • Athrithalix said “EgyptSat 2 suffered issues with the Soyuz rocket, but the Fregat stage was not the issue, and in fact likely saved the day.on 2019-03-22

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