Within 6 months, a bombing campaign will start in Iran.

Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-03-24; known on 2018-07-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

• pkfalu92 estimated 42% on 2018-03-24
• JoshuaZ said “How are you going to tell if there’s a black-ops campaign? ” on 2018-03-24
• pkfalu92 said “after the fact, most likely. I’ll be erring on the side of “no report == it didn’t happen.” But.. yes, given that it’d be hard to verify, I’ll modify the prediction.” on 2018-03-24
• pkfalu92 changed the deadline from “on 2018-07-23” and changed their prediction from “Within 6 months, a black-ops or bombing campaign will start in Iran.” on 2018-03-24
• pkfalu92 changed the deadline from “on 2018-07-23” and changed their prediction from “Within 6 months, a bbombing campaign will start in Iran.” on 2018-03-24
• pkfalu92 estimated 19% on 2018-03-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 21% on 2018-03-25
• Athrithalix estimated 25% on 2018-03-26
• RobertLumley estimated 20% on 2018-03-26
• peter_hurford estimated 15% on 2018-04-04
• davatk estimated 5% on 2018-04-24
• Shorntane estimated 20% on 2018-07-24
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-09-02.