Donald Trump will lose the next election.

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-07.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2018-04-03
• peter_hurford estimated 90% on 2018-04-04
• Athrithalix estimated 65% on 2018-04-04
• ccokeefe estimated 68% on 2018-04-05
• Jotto999 estimated 65% on 2018-04-06
• enolan estimated 75% on 2018-04-08
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2018-04-10
• betsForUtility estimated 80% on 2018-04-11
• PseudonymousUser said “Is this wrong or withdrawn if he doesn’t run in the next Presidential election?” on 2018-04-12
• DanMotorcycleGuy estimated 20% on 2018-04-22
• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2018-11-25
• krazemon estimated 80% and said “Surprisingly hard to find base rate statistics on % of incumbents that run & lose. Best I can find is this Daily Beast article (https://thebea.st/2s39ajS)) which claims 30% of incumbents that run win. Trump seems ~30% worse off than average…” on 2018-12-30
• krazemon said “Assuming the answer to bobpage’s Q is that withdrawing counts as a loss…” on 2018-12-30
• Baeboo estimated 70% on 2018-12-30
• gallerdude estimated 50% on 2018-12-31
• PseudonymousUser estimated 67% on 2019-01-19
• stepan estimated 1% on 2020-02-24
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2020-11-07.