Donald Trump will lose the next election.

Created by NTKryston on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04

  • NTKryston estimated 95% on 2018-04-03
  • peter_hurford estimated 90% on 2018-04-04
  • Athrithalix estimated 65% on 2018-04-04
  • ccokeefe estimated 68% on 2018-04-05
  • Jotto999 estimated 65% on 2018-04-06
  • enolan estimated 75% on 2018-04-08
  • notsonewuser estimated 70% on 2018-04-10
  • betsForUtility estimated 80% on 2018-04-11
  • bobpage said “Is this wrong or withdrawn if he doesn’t run in the next Presidential election?on 2018-04-12
  • DanMotorcycleGuy estimated 20% on 2018-04-22
  • pranomostro estimated 40% on 2018-11-25
  • krazemon estimated 80% and said “Surprisingly hard to find base rate statistics on % of incumbents that run & lose. Best I can find is this Daily Beast article (https://thebea.st/2s39ajS)) which claims 30% of incumbents that run win. Trump seems ~30% worse off than average…on 2018-12-30
  • krazemon said “Assuming the answer to bobpage’s Q is that withdrawing counts as a loss…on 2018-12-30
  • Baeboo estimated 70% on 2018-12-30
  • gallerdude estimated 50% on 2018-12-31
  • notsonewuser estimated 67% on 2019-01-19

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