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North Korea explodes a nuclear missile outside of internationally recognized North Korean territory

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

  • JTPeterson estimated 60% on 2018-04-24
  • Jotto999 estimated 20% and said “Does the ocean count? They’ve fired into the Sea of Japan quite a few times.on 2018-04-25
  • two2thehead said “What Jotto999 said.on 2018-04-25
  • ccokeefe estimated 3% on 2018-04-27
  • Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2018-05-02
  • JTPeterson said “I actually made this prediction back in December, and I do not think the probability is 60% anymore. But I’m keeping myself honest by recording the prediction.on 2018-05-03
  • two2thehead said “FWIIW you can make a new prediction as you change your mind. Maybe update with a prediction in a few days?on 2018-05-04
  • kmcharliecat estimated 15% on 2018-05-07
  • avi estimated 1% on 2018-05-08
  • pranomostro estimated 10% on 2018-09-19
  • JTPeterson   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-12-26.

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