North Korea explodes a nuclear missile outside of internationally recognized North Korean territory

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

• JTPeterson estimated 60% on 2018-04-24
• Jotto999 estimated 20% and said “Does the ocean count? They’ve fired into the Sea of Japan quite a few times.” on 2018-04-25
• two2thehead said “What Jotto999 said.” on 2018-04-25
• ccokeefe estimated 3% on 2018-04-27
• Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2018-05-02
• JTPeterson said “I actually made this prediction back in December, and I do not think the probability is 60% anymore. But I’m keeping myself honest by recording the prediction.” on 2018-05-03
• two2thehead said “FWIIW you can make a new prediction as you change your mind. Maybe update with a prediction in a few days?” on 2018-05-04
• kmcharliecat estimated 15% on 2018-05-07
• avi estimated 1% on 2018-05-08
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2018-09-19
• JTPeterson   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-12-26.