Politics, Libya – Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019

Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.

• jbeshir estimated 90% on 2018-04-26
• Athrithalix estimated 72% on 2018-04-26
• JoshuaZ said “Defined how? ” on 2018-04-26
• jbeshir said “The House of Representatives has not joined the Unity government, or if it has, some similarly large chunk (e.g. the former GNC) departs. Small rebellions/uncontrolled militias that are not credibly in the running for government do not count.” on 2018-04-30
• lalaithion estimated 87% on 2018-04-30
• bendini estimated 40% on 2018-06-16
• bw estimated 80% on 2018-07-01
• bendini said “Seems like I had bad information here. I generally refuse to bow to consensus when my intuition disagrees. This often works in my favour, but here I’d have been better listening to the crowd’s wisdom.” on 2018-09-18
• pranomostro estimated 85% on 2018-09-19
• Baeboo estimated 98% on 2018-12-12
• Baeboo   judged this prediction right on 2019-01-02.