The US yield curve will invert in 2018, i.e., the 10y yield will fall below the 1y yield.
- Cato estimated 40% on 2018-05-06
- Cato said “Verification: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield” on 2018-05-06
- Michael Dickens estimated 15% and said “Don’t know much about this but my understanding is this is Bad and the Fed will try to prevent it from happening, and it’s also historically unusual” on 2018-05-14
- Cato judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-02.
- Cato said “The curve did invert at other points (e.g., 5y went below 3y), but 10/1 did not.” on 2019-01-02
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