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Kim Jong Un not to agree to dismantle nuclear weapons program in June 12 Trump talks

Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.

  • Cato estimated 85% on 2018-05-19
  • Cato estimated 95% and said “Meeting has been canceled, at least for nowon 2018-05-25
  • jbeshir estimated 65% and said “Assuming that this resolves as wrong if he says he will in principle but all the analysts think he’s probably lying.on 2018-06-02
  • Cato said “Clarification: This prediction is correct iff the parties conclude an agreement to verifiably eliminate all DPRK nuclear weapons. No signatures necessary on June 12, but “agreement with unrealistic conditions” doesn’t count.on 2018-06-06
  • Cato estimated 90% and said “Meeting is back on. Note that “keep nukes+sanctions stay” is a unique Nash equilibrium for game: US vs. NK under plausible outcome utilities.on 2018-06-06
  • jbeshir said “Yeah, but Kim Jong Un lies about giving up nukes and Trump trumpets it as a success is an excellent outcome for Trump vs Kim (and saying things then going back on them is known NK behaviour). So I stick with my current probability.on 2018-06-10
  • jbeshir said “I’d assign lower odds, but “verifiably” is important there- there’s a decent chance they’d “agree in principle” or something but not commit to any specific verification process.on 2018-06-10
  • Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-06-13.
  • Cato said “From the joint statement: “Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”on 2018-06-13