At the end of 2100, at least 100 mio. people will be alive.

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01

• pranomostro estimated 77% on 2018-09-25
• pranomostro said “Furthermore, the confidence of 100 mio. people living at the end of the specified decade: 2020: 99.9%, 2030: 99%, 2040: 98%, 2050: 93%, 2060: 88%, 2070: 85%, 2080: 81%, 2090: 79%, 2100: 77%.” on 2018-09-25
• pranomostro changed the deadline from “on 2101-01-01” and changed their prediction from “At the end of 2100, at least 100 mio. people will live.” on 2018-09-25
• pranomostro said “Definition of “people”/“human” (extending of course to other questions using these terms: ” on 2018-09-25
• pranomostro said “For these purposes we’ll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring.” on 2018-09-25
• pranomostro said “ (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) (from https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/))” on 2018-09-25
• pranomostro estimated 80% on 2019-09-05