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Next US financial crash, and consequent recession to hit between December of 2018, and March of 2019

Created by sdr on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-05-01.

  • sdr estimated 80% on 2018-10-19
  • peter_hurford estimated 3% on 2018-10-19
  • pranomostro estimated 6% on 2018-10-20
  • vinegar estimated 10% on 2018-10-25
  • Michael Dickens estimated 7% and said “Wow sdr this seems like a good betting opportunity. Or a good opportunity for you to make a lot of money shorting stocks & buying bonds.” on 2018-10-28
  • Michael Dickens said “sdr, can you elaborate on what makes you so confident?” on 2018-10-28
  • sdr estimated 10% and said “Yeah, this was way overconfident, and underpowered. Original data is: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y <- zoom out to 20-year level, eyeball chart. This points to some signal, but date can be years away” on 2018-10-30
  • Baeboo estimated 6% on 2018-12-12
  • Baeboo estimated 4% on 2019-01-01
  • 6thNapoleon estimated 5% on 2019-02-24
  • Baeboo estimated 3% on 2019-02-24
  • Pablo estimated 0% on 2019-04-13
  • Michael Dickens   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-05-01.