[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 40 seconds

Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.

  • WilliamKiely estimated 60% on 2018-11-12
  • pranomostro estimated 70% on 2018-11-14
  • WilliamKiely estimated 75% and said “New information: The donation size limit has increased from $2,499 to $100,000 for US users on Nov 14th suggesting the match may run out faster.on 2018-11-18
  • WilliamKiely estimated 55% on 2018-11-18
  • aarongertler estimated 43% and said “For all these predictions, I’m a bit more dubious, since I think very few other people will pay as much attention to timing as the EA group. I don’t see much more than 3.5x the interest, and there is 3.5x the money.on 2018-11-19
  • WilliamKiely said “I predict less than 3.5 times the interest (last year $45M was donated through FB; this year $100-$150M seems probable), however I expect the top 4 percentile to be faster. Roughly: The 96th percentile this year is as fast as 99.0th percentile 2017.on 2018-11-19
  • jbeshir estimated 67% on 2018-11-24
  • WilliamKiely estimated 60% on 2018-11-25
  • WilliamKiely estimated 81% and said “The match hasn’t been announced yet.on 2018-11-29
  • Cory estimated 70% and said “Facebook says that including the match, over $125 million was raised. There are also a couple news reports of a Facebook spokesperson saying that the match was reached “within a matter of seconds.”on 2018-11-29
  • WilliamKiely   judged this prediction right on 2018-12-20.

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