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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 3 minutes

Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.

  • WilliamKiely estimated 90% on 2018-11-12
  • pranomostro estimated 98% on 2018-11-14
  • WilliamKiely estimated 85% and said “New information: The donation size limit has increased from $2,499 to $100,000 for US users on Nov 14th suggesting the match may run out faster.” on 2018-11-18
  • WilliamKiely estimated 80% on 2018-11-18
  • WilliamKiely said “Why 20% chance that matching funds will still be available 3 minutes into match given that last year it ran out in 1m26s? Facebook may have thought “We don’t want it to run out so quickly again” and taken steps (unknown to me) to ensure it doesn’t.” on 2018-11-18
  • WilliamKiely estimated 82% on 2018-11-19
  • WilliamKiely estimated 88% on 2018-11-19
  • WilliamKiely estimated 85% on 2018-11-19
  • jbeshir estimated 85% on 2018-11-24
  • WilliamKiely estimated 85% on 2018-11-25
  • WilliamKiely estimated 96% and said “The match hasn’t been announced yet.” on 2018-11-29
  • WilliamKiely   judged this prediction right on 2018-12-20.