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I will graduate from Denison University by May 17, 2014.

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-17; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-18.

  • Peter Hurford estimated 100% on 2013-06-17
  • Michael Dickens estimated 80% on 2013-06-19
  • Tuxedage estimated 95% on 2013-06-19
  • Peter Hurford said “I’d really like to know how you guys arrived at your predictions. ;)” on 2013-06-21
  • JoshuaZ estimated 98% and said “Conditioning on the normal chance of something unexpected happening and general overconfidence in your prior predictions. ” on 2013-06-21
  • aarongertler estimated 99% and said “What Josh said. But I know a bit about your life goals and how a degree will help them, so I think it would take something serious to pull you out.” on 2014-03-23
  • Peter Hurford said “You’re all haters. This turned out to happen!” on 2014-05-18
  • Peter Hurford   judged this prediction right on 2014-05-18.