WTI forward curve to be upsloped for all of 1Q19.

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-28.

  • Cato estimated 60% on 2019-01-04
  • Cato said “Verification: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htmon 2019-01-04
  • Cato said “To clarify: I’m only referring to the first four months of the curve, because historical data for those are the easiest to look up. In other words, the claim is that M4-M1>0 throughout Q1.on 2019-01-07
  • Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-02-28.
  • Cato said “So far M4 has already been lower than M1 on seven trading days in Q1.on 2019-02-28

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