“We will not be able to simulate a Eukaryotic cell (2^46-2^47 atoms) with high-fidelity classical physics at more than 0.1% of real time”

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-07; known on 2101-01-01

• pranomostro estimated 66% on 2019-01-07
• pranomostro said “Details at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/#comment-5478” on 2019-01-07
• pranomostro changed their prediction from “We will not be able to simulate a Eukyrotic cell (2^46-2^47 atoms) with high-fidelity classical physics at more than 0.1% of real time” on 2019-01-07
• pranomostro changed the deadline from “on 2101-01-01” and changed their prediction from ““We will not be able to simulate a Eukyrotic cell (2^46-2^47 atoms) with high-fidelity classical physics at more than 0.1% of real time”” on 2019-05-29
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-09-05