One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse.

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2025-01-01

• pranomostro estimated 55% on 2019-01-08
• pranomostro changed the deadline from “on 2025-01-01” and changed their prediction from “One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse before 2025.” on 2019-01-08
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-01-08
• Medea estimated 75% on 2019-01-11
• Baeboo estimated 68% on 2019-01-12
• aoeu estimated 40% and said “probably Magic Leap” on 2019-01-12
• lalaithion estimated 34% on 2019-01-12
• Michael Dickens said “Can you define “collapse” a little more specifically? e.g., 90% or greater decline in valuation from peak to trough” on 2019-01-14
• two2thehead said “What Michael Dickens said.” on 2019-01-14
• pranomostro said “Source: https://lobste.rs/s/qvzps0/share_predictions_for_long_medium_short#c_2dl7pa” on 2019-01-19
• pranomostro said “The original prediction is not very specific, but I’m inclined to agree with @Michael Dickens on the resolution criteria.” on 2019-01-19
• PseudonymousUser estimated 59% and said “this is basically equivalent to “magic leap will collapse by 2025”” on 2019-03-08
• Baeboo estimated 80% on 2020-11-20