[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Sophisticated)

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.

  • Cato estimated 40% on 2019-01-09
  • Cato said “If Fighter A has the longer reach α than Fighter B’s β, then Fighter A is predicted to win at p = α/(α+β), and Fighter B is predicted to win at q = 1 – p. If reach data is unavailable for one fighter, height is used instead for both fighters.on 2019-01-09
  • Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-21.
  • Cato said “Brier score = 0.256on 2019-01-21

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