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[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Naïve)

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.

  • Cato estimated 0% on 2019-01-09
  • Cato said “Model calculates Laplace rule-of-succession probabilities for each fighter in a bout. Whichever fighter’s probability is higher is predicted to win at 100%.on 2019-01-09
  • Cato said “Brier score = 0.45on 2019-01-21
  • Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-21.