[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Sophisticated)
- Cato estimated 30% on 2019-01-09
- Cato said “Model calculates Laplace rule-of-succession probabilities for each fighter in a bout. If Fighter A has the higher probability α than Fighter B’s β, then Fighter A is predicted to win at p = α/(α+β), and Fighter B is predicted to win at q = 1 – p.” on 2019-01-09
- Cato judged this prediction right on 2019-01-21.
- Cato said “Brier score = 0.244, the only model that outperformed chance.” on 2019-01-21
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