[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Sophisticated)

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-21.

  • Cato estimated 30% on 2019-01-09
  • Cato said “Model calculates Laplace rule-of-succession probabilities for each fighter in a bout. If Fighter A has the higher probability α than Fighter B’s β, then Fighter A is predicted to win at p = α/(α+β), and Fighter B is predicted to win at q = 1 – p.on 2019-01-09
  • Cato   judged this prediction right on 2019-01-21.
  • Cato said “Brier score = 0.244, the only model that outperformed chance.on 2019-01-21

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