[Politics] Donald Trump to publicly express support for Taiwanese independence in 2019

Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

• Cato estimated 10% on 2019-01-22
• Cato said “Tweets and unofficial statements count as long as (a) they come from Trump himself and (b) they are public (e.g., leaks don’t count)” on 2019-01-22
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-01-22
• peter_hurford estimated 5% on 2019-01-24
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2019-02-25
• Cato estimated 12% on 2019-04-10
• Cato said “Support conditional on Taiwanese sentiment counts too (example: “I think they should be independent if that’s what they want”) because it recognizes TW right to self-determination. Postponed independence counts as well.” on 2019-04-10
• Cato estimated 14% on 2019-06-12
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-03.