[Politics] Donald Trump to publicly express support for Taiwanese independence in 2019

Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

  • Cato estimated 10% on 2019-01-22
  • Cato said “Tweets and unofficial statements count as long as (a) they come from Trump himself and (b) they are public (e.g., leaks don’t count)on 2019-01-22
  • pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-01-22
  • peter_hurford estimated 5% on 2019-01-24
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 3% on 2019-02-25
  • Cato estimated 12% on 2019-04-10
  • Cato said “Support conditional on Taiwanese sentiment counts too (example: “I think they should be independent if that’s what they want”) because it recognizes TW right to self-determination. Postponed independence counts as well.on 2019-04-10
  • Cato estimated 14% on 2019-06-12
  • Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-03.

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