[Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020.

Created by KangaRookie on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-04.

• KangaRookie estimated 35% on 2019-01-22
• KangaRookie changed the deadline from “on 2020-11-04” and changed their prediction from “Trump will not run for a second term in 2020.” on 2019-01-22
• dmwit estimated 15% on 2019-01-22
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-01-22
• Baeboo estimated 31% on 2019-01-23
• Bruno Parga said “If he does run but is defeated in the primaries, this resolves as wrong, correct?” on 2019-01-23
• KangaRookie changed the deadline from “on 2020-11-04” and changed their prediction from “[Politics] Trump will not run for a second term in 2020.” on 2019-01-24
• peter_hurford estimated 10% and said “Technically he already chose to run for a second term. Are you asking whether he’ll withdraw or otherwise not be on the ballot?” on 2019-01-24
• PseudonymousUser estimated 25% on 2019-01-25
• BenjyForstadt estimated 9% on 2019-01-25
• jan.gerber@tkc.edu estimated 0% on 2019-01-26
• 6thNapoleon estimated 11% on 2019-01-26
• aarongertler estimated 2% on 2019-01-30
• calummcii estimated 10% and said “He wouldn’t have went as far as to shut down the government unless he fully intended to run. There’s little time before the campaigns start now. However, he may “choose” not to run due to being forced out, for example by the Muller probe.” on 2019-02-01
• Cato said “How is everyone calibrating their estimates when peter_hurford’s question is unresolved? Trump declared his 2020 candidacy shortly after taking office in 2017. KangaRookie should clarify the proposition.” on 2019-02-02
• PseudonymousUser estimated 21% and said “^I’m assuming the intent of this prediction is that Trump changes his mind. ” on 2019-03-08
• amadeu estimated 10% on 2019-04-04
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2019-04-12
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-04.