“Ginsberg [sic!] still alive”

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.

• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2019-01-26
• pranomostro said “Source: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/25/predictions-for-2019/” on 2019-01-26
• pranomostro said “Assumption: Meant is the judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg)) and not the poet Allen Ginsberg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Ginsberg)) who died in 1997.” on 2019-01-26
• pranomostro said “Actuarial table for Ginsburg: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=life+expectancy+of+a+86+year+old+us+woman” on 2019-01-26
• pranomostro said “Lung cancer survival rates (~30% for one year): https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/statistics-by-cancer-type/lung-cancer/survival#collapseZero” on 2019-01-26
• pranomostro estimated 35% on 2019-01-26
• 6thNapoleon estimated 31% on 2019-01-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2019-03-08
• PseudonymousUser said “https://www.npr.org/2018/12/21/679065534/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-undergoes-surgery-for-lung-cancer” on 2019-03-08
• PseudonymousUser said “Per NPR: Short of complications in recovery, doctors say prospects look good for a full recovery for Ginsburg” on 2019-03-08
• amadeu estimated 85% on 2019-05-17
• PseudonymousUser said “Lotsa dumb predictions here” on 2019-05-19
• pranomostro said “Still alive.” on 2020-01-01
• pranomostro   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-01.