“Nothing more embarassing than Vigano memo happens to Pope Francis”

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-04-09.

• pranomostro estimated 85% on 2019-01-26
• pranomostro said “Source: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/25/predictions-for-2019/” on 2019-01-26
• Bruno Parga estimated 90% on 2019-01-31
• Bruno Parga said “I’d say this is correct, but I’ll defer to Scott’s own judgement if published.” on 2020-01-01
• pranomostro said “@Bruno Parga Yeah, me too.” on 2020-01-01
• pranomostro said “Similar for all the other 2019 predictions from SSC•” on 2020-01-01
• pranomostro said “Except some obvious ones (which I will change if SSC decides otherwise).” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga said “Yeah, I think Scott’s predictions are usually pretty well defined, so that we can judge them ourselves (e.g. “Xi still in power”). This one is a bit more on the subjective end.” on 2020-01-01
• pranomostro said “https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/08/2019-predictions-calibration-results/” on 2020-04-09
• pranomostro   judged this prediction right on 2020-04-09.