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Any UN member state to recognize Taiwan or ROC in 2019

Created by Cato on 2019-01-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

  • Cato estimated 25% on 2019-01-31
  • Cato said “Naturally, I exclude the 17 states that already recognize the Republic of China. See next comment for list.” on 2019-01-31
  • Cato said “Excluded: Belize, Eswatini, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Nicaragua, Palau, Paraguay, Solomon Islands, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Tuvalu, and Vatican City” on 2019-01-31
  • pranomostro estimated 33% on 2019-01-31
  • Bruno Parga estimated 15% on 2019-01-31
  • Cato estimated 21% on 2019-03-01
  • Cato estimated 19% on 2019-04-03
  • Cato estimated 22% on 2019-06-12
  • Cato estimated 0% on 2019-11-15
  • Bruno Parga said “Kiribati and Solomon Islands went from ROC to PRC.” on 2020-01-01
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.