[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in July for which data are published

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.

• Cato estimated 20% on 2019-02-02
• Cato said “https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield” on 2019-02-02
• Cato said “Note that yields at the following maturities are inverted as of 2019-02-01: 5y-1y, 5y-2y, 3y-1y, 3y-2y, 2y-1y, and 3m-2m.” on 2019-02-02
• Cato estimated 23% on 2019-02-18
• Cato estimated 16% on 2019-03-04
• Cato estimated 52% on 2019-04-01
• Cato estimated 48% on 2019-04-17
• Cato estimated 50% on 2019-04-26
• Cato estimated 56% on 2019-05-17
• Cato estimated 80% on 2019-05-29
• Cato estimated 89% on 2019-06-12
• Cato estimated 94% on 2019-06-25
• Cato estimated 96% on 2019-07-09
• Cato estimated 99% on 2019-07-16
• Cato estimated 10% on 2019-07-22
• Cato estimated 100% and said “Oops” on 2019-07-22
• Cato estimated 100% on 2019-07-24
• Cato   judged this prediction right on 2019-08-01.