[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] October 30 FOMC meeting

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.

• Cato estimated 45% on 2019-02-02
• Cato said “Verification: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html” on 2019-02-02
• Cato estimated 30% on 2019-02-13
• Cato estimated 20% on 2019-03-21
• Cato estimated 74% on 2019-04-02
• Cato estimated 5% and said “Oops” on 2019-04-02
• Cato estimated 1% on 2019-04-26
• Cato estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-05-05.