No new states adopt the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-03-18.

  • Bruno Parga estimated 70% on 2019-02-12
  • Bruno Parga said “As of today, the latest state to adopt is Connecticut.on 2019-02-12
  • pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-02-12
  • Cato said “New Mexico and Colorado seem like the most likely states to adopt it next.on 2019-02-18
  • Cato estimated 10% on 2019-02-18
  • dmwit estimated 60% and said “Only blue states join, so say 20 states will ever join, each with 0.0717 chance of joining each year (computed from Wikipedia data). 315/365 of the year left; with x=0.0099, y=0.0624 we have x/y=50/315 and x+y-x*y=0.0717. Then (1-0.0624)^8 ~= 0.6.on 2019-02-20
  • Cato estimated 80% on 2019-03-07
  • amadeu said “Colorado joined.on 2019-03-18
  • amadeu   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-03-18.
  • Cato said “Oops, I messed up the negation in my second estimate.on 2019-03-18

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction