No new states adopt the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

Created by Bruno Parga 11 days ago; known on 2020-01-01

  • Bruno Parga estimated 70% 11 days ago
  • Bruno Parga said “As of today, the latest state to adopt is Connecticut.11 days ago
  • pranomostro estimated 60% 10 days ago
  • Cato said “New Mexico and Colorado seem like the most likely states to adopt it next.4 days ago
  • Cato estimated 10% 4 days ago
  • dmwit estimated 60% and said “Only blue states join, so say 20 states will ever join, each with 0.0717 chance of joining each year (computed from Wikipedia data). 315/365 of the year left; with x=0.0099, y=0.0624 we have x/y=50/315 and x+y-x*y=0.0717. Then (1-0.0624)^8 ~= 0.6.2 days ago

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