[Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term

Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-07.

• RedScharlach estimated 56% on 2019-02-15
• Baeboo estimated 33% on 2019-02-15
• pranomostro estimated 55% on 2019-02-16
• Cato estimated 30% on 2019-02-18
• 6thNapoleon estimated 41% on 2019-02-24
• amadeu estimated 37% on 2019-03-04
• 6thNapoleon estimated 67% on 2019-03-25
• Cato estimated 40% on 2019-09-27
• Cato estimated 42% on 2019-12-06
• unexpectedEOF estimated 72% on 2020-08-19
• NickN estimated 70% on 2020-08-24
• sty.silver estimated 33% on 2020-08-26
• sty.silver said “I know reasons but it’s still an 8 point lead” on 2020-08-26
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 30% and said “Don’t see much reason to diverge from the 538 model.” on 2020-08-27
• jbeshir estimated 25% on 2020-10-04
• sty.silver   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-07.