American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25; known on 2024-01-01

  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 12% on 2019-02-25
  • pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-02-26
  • Baeboo estimated 15% on 2019-02-26
  • Cato said “Does it have to be US ground troops firing shots? What if they are present but don’t actually fight (advisors, security guards, logistics)? And what about air strikes, missiles, drones, or cyber attacks?on 2019-02-27
  • two2thehead said “What Cato asked. Does an Iraqi or Syrian or Libyan situation count? IE there are special operations forces working alongside native armed forces?on 2019-02-27
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “To Cato: The prediction covers the hypothetical scenario where US military personnel are deployed to Venezuela and carry out orders to cause kinetic damage within Venezuelan borders. on 2019-03-08
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “To two2thehead: If working alongside means training or intelligence sharing, that doesn’t count on its own. The US forces must personally cause kinetic damage to occur, not merely enable it by training or intelligence sharing. on 2019-03-08
  • Cato said “OK, so air strikes count, but missile strikes (launched from outside Venezuela), cyber attacks, and naval blockades do not. Right?on 2019-03-08
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Well, air strikes count provided they are carried out by manned aircraft over Venezuelan territory, or are drones operated by US military personnel who are geographically located in Venezuela.on 2019-03-08
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “For a cyberattack to count I’d say it would (1) have to be launched by US military personnel geographically located in Venezuela and (2) must be carried out with the deliberate intent of causing kinetic damageon 2019-03-08
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “By kinetic damage, I mean permanent damage to persons or things, e.g., a flood, an explosion, a power outage resulting in the loss of lives. on 2019-03-08
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “And lastly, missiles launched from outside Venezuela and naval blockades do not count at all.on 2019-03-08
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 27% on 2019-03-10
  • Cato estimated 10% on 2019-03-10
  • Baeboo estimated 18% on 2019-03-11
  • Cato estimated 16% on 2019-04-03

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