[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw fewer than 100,000 people, assuming it is not canceled

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.

• Cato estimated 10% on 2019-02-28
• Cato changed the deadline from “on 2019-06-05” on 2019-02-28
• Cato said “Verification: Vigil organizers (note that their estimates usually exceed police estimates by about 3x)” on 2019-02-28
• pranomostro estimated 35% on 2019-02-28
• Cato estimated 9% on 2019-04-01
• stepan estimated 10% on 2019-05-26
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-06-05.