[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before April 2019 EOM

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-04-30.

• Cato estimated 65% on 2019-03-05
• Cato said “Eligible talk shows: Kimmel, Colbert, Fallon, Conan” on 2019-03-05
• two2thehead said “Interesting question. I’ll think about it and estimate later.” on 2019-03-05
• two2thehead estimated 51% and said “It’s certainly possible. Cato, if you are taking suggestions, I recommend putting the year AND month into the main prediction text. Makes it easier to skim though a large bunch of predictions at the same time.” on 2019-03-05
• Cato changed the deadline from “on 2019-05-01” and changed their prediction from “[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before April EOM” on 2019-03-06
• Cato said “Thanks, good idea. I’ll try to keep it in mind.” on 2019-03-06
• pranomostro estimated 55% on 2019-03-07
• sunmaid estimated 65% on 2019-03-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 24% and said “I think Colbert is the only one out of those four who would even consider it. The rest of them… like to keep things light. And April 2019 is very soon. ” on 2019-03-08
• PseudonymousUser said “FWIW: Andrew Yang apparently said on the Joe Rogan Podcast that he was on the Daily Show with Trevor Noah, and that it would air “within weeks”. That was February 9. It’s been a month, and it hasn’t aired yet. I’m not sure what to make of that.” on 2019-03-08
• Cato said “This resolution is only considering the four shows mentioned in the first comment. There are many explicitly political shows (Daily Show, Samantha Bee, LastWeekTonight etc.), but I’d consider his appearance on these to be less remarkable.” on 2019-03-08
• Cato said “Yes, Colbert is the best shot. Oh, and he has to be a guest for this to count—mentioning him or airing footage of him doesn’t count.” on 2019-03-08
• true estimated 50% on 2019-03-09
• Cato estimated 70% on 2019-03-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2019-03-17
• Cato estimated 73% on 2019-03-17
• amadeu estimated 60% on 2019-03-18
• Cato estimated 74% on 2019-03-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 30% on 2019-04-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 15% on 2019-04-11
• Cato estimated 51% on 2019-04-12
• true estimated 20% on 2019-04-12
• Cato estimated 18% on 2019-04-16
• two2thehead estimated 25% on 2019-04-16
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2019-04-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2019-04-19
• Cato estimated 1% on 2019-04-24
• two2thehead estimated 1% on 2019-04-24
• Cato estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
• amadeu   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-04-30.
• PseudonymousUser said “You had the right idea, Cato! He was on Colbert the other day.” on 2019-06-26
• Cato said “Ah, nice.” on 2019-06-28