US homicide rate to be lower in 2019 than 2018

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01

• Cato estimated 85% on 2019-03-05
• Cato said “Verification: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm” on 2019-03-05
• Cato said “In case CDC is not updated by resolution time, alternate sources like FBI are OK too.” on 2019-03-05
• pranomostro said “See also: https://predictionbook.com/predictions/194224” on 2019-03-07
• pranomostro estimated 85% on 2019-03-07
• Cato said “Not really sure what to do about this. Latest CDC data appears to be from 2017. FBI has murder data from 2018, thought murder != homicide.” on 2020-01-07
• Cato said “https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/topic-pages/murder” on 2020-01-07
• Cato said “I think I’ll wait three months (that is, until 2020-04-01) and revisit these two data sources to see if either has updated.” on 2020-01-07