[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] under 20,000

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01

• Cato estimated 65% on 2019-03-06
• Cato said “Verification: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market” on 2019-03-06
• Cato said “Average of prior 30 trading days” on 2019-03-06
• pranomostro estimated 45% on 2019-03-07
• Baeboo estimated 90% on 2019-03-07
• pranomostro estimated 70% on 2019-03-08
• Cato said “Better verification source (easier to obtain average): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DJIA” on 2019-03-18
• Cato estimated 75% on 2019-03-18
• Baeboo estimated 89% on 2019-03-18
• Baeboo estimated 94% on 2019-03-25
• Cato estimated 85% on 2019-04-02
• Cato estimated 96% on 2019-05-05
• Cato estimated 98% on 2019-05-29
• Cato estimated 100% on 2019-08-29
• stepan estimated 99% on 2019-09-10
• Cato withdrew the prediction on 2019-10-01