[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil

Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02

• Cato estimated 70% on 2019-03-14
• Cato said “Verification: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU” on 2019-03-14
• Cato said “March 1 reference: 63.71” on 2019-03-14
• pranomostro estimated 50% and said “@Cato: Could you outline your reasoning here? I have a hard time finding any connections between brexit and oil price.” on 2019-03-14
• Baeboo estimated 43% on 2019-03-15
• Cato said “@pranomostro: I have two theses in mind, both of them on the demand side: (1) crude oil noisily tracks economic expectations, and (2) Brent is North Sea crude, which stands to bear disproportionate brunt of UK econ shocks” on 2019-03-15
• pranomostro said “@Cato: Okay, thanks. Makes it clearer.” on 2019-03-15
• Cato withdrew the prediction on 2019-04-01