[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil

Created by Cato 4 days ago; known in 15 days

  • Cato estimated 70% 4 days ago
  • Cato said “Verification: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU4 days ago
  • Cato said “March 1 reference: 63.714 days ago
  • pranomostro estimated 50% and said “@Cato: Could you outline your reasoning here? I have a hard time finding any connections between brexit and oil price.4 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 43% 4 days ago
  • Cato said “@pranomostro: I have two theses in mind, both of them on the demand side: (1) crude oil noisily tracks economic expectations, and (2) Brent is North Sea crude, which stands to bear disproportionate brunt of UK econ shocks4 days ago
  • pranomostro said “@Cato: Okay, thanks. Makes it clearer.3 days ago

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