[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-10.

• Cato estimated 60% on 2019-03-22
• Cato said “Verification: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php” on 2019-03-22
• Baeboo estimated 36% on 2019-03-22
• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2019-03-26
• Cato estimated 50% on 2019-04-17
• Cato estimated 62% on 2019-07-10
• Cato estimated 46% on 2019-08-05
• Cato estimated 27% on 2019-10-12
• Cato estimated 23% on 2019-11-20
• Cato said “Definition: “NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which is part of the National Weather Service, declares the onset of an El Niño episode when the 3-month average sea-surface temperature departure exceeds 0.5C in the east-central equatorial Pacific”” on 2020-01-10
• Cato said “Source: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml#NINO” on 2020-01-10
• Cato said “The temperature anomaly for Oct-Nov-Dec is 0.5C, on the border between Neutral and Niño. But the wording in the linked FAQ is specifies that the anomaly must exceed 0.5. Therefore, OND is Neutral. (The color-coding in the verification page agrees.)” on 2020-01-10
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-10.