US & China to announce end to trade war in Q2 2019

Created by Cato on 2019-04-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

• Cato estimated 65% on 2019-04-01
• Cato said “Definition: US and China to announce end of all new (i.e., added since July 2018) tariffs on counterparty’s goods. Relevant date is official announcement date, not effective date.” on 2019-04-01
• chemotaxis101 estimated 45% on 2019-04-02
• Cato changed their prediction from “US & China to announce end to trade war in Q1 2019” on 2019-04-03
• PseudonymousUser estimated 38% on 2019-04-03
• pranomostro estimated 35% on 2019-04-05
• Cato estimated 75% on 2019-04-09
• true estimated 50% on 2019-04-12
• Cato estimated 51% on 2019-05-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 26% on 2019-05-29
• PseudonymousUser estimated 23% on 2019-06-01
• Cato estimated 9% on 2019-06-12
• Cato said “Clarification: Announcing that they will “work toward” ending the trade war doesn’t count. Neither does announcing a framework for ending it. The announcement must give a date on which all the new tariffs are canceled.” on 2019-06-25
• Cato estimated 2% on 2019-06-25
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-07-01.