[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for March 2019 to exceed 50%

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-04-30; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-03.

• Cato estimated 6% on 2019-04-03
• Cato said “Verification: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N” on 2019-04-03
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2019-04-05
• Pablo estimated 1% and said “As far as I can tell, the month-to-month recession probability never increased by more than 50%, which is what would need to happen for this prediction to resolve true.” on 2019-04-13
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2019-04-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2019-04-16
• pranomostro   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-05-03.
• pranomostro said “1.94% for march.” on 2019-05-03