[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for April 2019 to exceed 50%

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.

• Cato estimated 6% on 2019-04-03
• Cato said “Verification: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N” on 2019-04-03
• pranomostro estimated 12% on 2019-04-05
• Pablo estimated 0% on 2019-05-24
• stepan estimated 10% on 2019-05-26
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-06-05.