[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for August 2019 to exceed 50%

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 17 days ago.

• Cato estimated 12% on 2019-04-03
• Cato said “Verification: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N” on 2019-04-03
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-04-05
• Cato changed the deadline from “20 days ago” on 2019-06-03
• Cato estimated 13% on 2019-06-05
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong 17 days ago.

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