[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for August 2019 to exceed 50%

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-10-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.

• Cato estimated 12% on 2019-04-03
• Cato said “Verification: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N” on 2019-04-03
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-04-05
• Cato changed the deadline from “on 2019-09-30” on 2019-06-03
• Cato estimated 13% on 2019-06-05
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-10-03.