[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for September 2019 to exceed 50%

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-11-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.

• Cato estimated 14% on 2019-04-03
• Cato said “Verification: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N” on 2019-04-03
• pranomostro estimated 18% on 2019-04-05
• Cato changed the deadline from “on 2019-10-31” on 2019-06-03
• Cato estimated 15% on 2019-06-05
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-11-04.