[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for October 2019 to exceed 50%

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 6 days ago.

• Cato estimated 16% on 2019-04-03
• Cato said “Verification: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N” on 2019-04-03
• pranomostro estimated 18% on 2019-04-05
• Cato changed the deadline from “8 days ago” on 2019-06-03
• Cato estimated 17% on 2019-06-05
• Pablo Stafforini estimated 1% 10 days ago
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong 6 days ago.

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction