[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for November 2019 to exceed 50%

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.

• Cato estimated 18% on 2019-04-03
• Cato said “Verification: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N” on 2019-04-03
• pranomostro estimated 19% on 2019-04-05
• Cato changed the deadline from “on 2019-12-31” on 2019-06-03
• Cato estimated 19% on 2019-06-05
• Cato estimated 29% on 2019-09-09
• Pablo estimated 0% on 2020-01-02
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-07.