[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for December 2019 to exceed 50%

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-02-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

• Cato estimated 20% on 2019-04-03
• Cato said “Verification: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N” on 2019-04-03
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2019-04-05
• eschleimer707@gmail.com estimated 10% on 2019-04-07
• Cato changed the deadline from “on 2020-01-31” on 2019-06-03
• Cato changed the deadline from “on 2020-01-05” on 2019-06-03
• Cato estimated 21% on 2019-06-05
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-02-29.