[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be released to the public
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
- Cato estimated 55% on 2019-05-05
- Cato said “Any year’s full return will do (not just a few pages like the 2017 Maddow leak)” on 2019-05-05
- PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2019-05-05
- Cato said “Clarification: Leaks count.” on 2019-05-05
- pranomostro estimated 45% on 2019-05-06
- pranomostro estimated 40% on 2019-05-06
- Cato said “Note that the recent NYT story does not include any complete returns.” on 2019-05-08
- 6thNapoleon estimated 22% on 2019-05-16
- JoshuaZ estimated 24% on 2019-05-17
- Paul.David.Carr estimated 15% on 2019-06-01
- PseudonymousUser said “My thinking: A private individual will not risk leaking them. Thus if a leak occurs, it will be through a nation-state actor. However, a nation-state actor would wait til November 2020. ” on 2019-06-05
- PseudonymousUser said “I mention this because I’ve created a prediction that runs up to election day 2020. ” on 2019-06-05
- PseudonymousUser said “https://predictionbook.com/predictions/196104” on 2019-06-05
- PseudonymousUser said “(in case anyone’s interested.)” on 2019-06-05
- Cato said “I agree that a state actor would probably prefer an election-period release. But it may want to influence the primary elections too, e.g., by splitting the Democrats over impeachment.” on 2019-06-05
- Cato said “@Tapetum-Lucidum: Why do you think only a state actor would leak the returns? Why not a big newspaper? And if personal risk is the barrier, couldn’t a private individual can always leak them anonymously, such as via Wikileaks?” on 2019-06-05
- Cato estimated 40% on 2019-09-19
- PseudonymousUser said “My reasoning was, a private individual would be unlikely to possess the resources necessary to discover wrongdoing when looking at the returns. Without a clear allegation of wrongdoing, it would not be worth the risk. ” on 2019-09-25
- Cato estimated 55% on 2019-10-08
- Cato estimated 66% on 2019-12-06
- HiJoshuaZ estimated 24% on 2019-12-23
- stepan estimated 1% on 2020-02-24
- Cato estimated 30% on 2020-02-29
- stepan estimated 15% on 2020-03-04
- Cato judged this prediction wrong on 2020-05-06.