A US Navy vessel to sink or be destroyed in the Persian/Arab Gulf by May 2020 EOM

Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.

Cato estimated 8% on 2019-05-13
Cato changed the deadline from “on 2020-05-12” and changed their prediction from “A US Navy vessel to sink or be destroyed in the Persian/Arab Gulf in the next year” on 2019-05-13
pranomostro estimated 10% on 2019-05-13
Cato estimated 11% on 2019-06-24
Cato estimated 13% on 2019-09-19
Cato estimated 16% on 2019-10-11
Cato estimated 12% on 2019-12-06
Cato estimated 19% on 2020-01-07
Cato estimated 11% on 2020-02-29
Cato judged this prediction wrong on 2020-06-05.