US military to execute air strike or missile strike on Iranian territory or naval assets by May 2020 EOM

Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.

• Cato estimated 17% on 2019-05-13
• Cato changed the deadline from “on 2020-05-12” and changed their prediction from “US military to execute air strike or missile strike on Iranian territory or naval assets in the next year” on 2019-05-13
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2019-05-13
• pranomostro estimated 30% on 2019-05-13
• Cato estimated 27% on 2019-05-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 7% on 2019-05-20
• stepan estimated 13% on 2019-05-22
• Cato estimated 41% on 2019-06-24
• Cato estimated 11% on 2019-09-11
• Cato estimated 19% on 2019-09-19
• Cato estimated 22% on 2019-10-11
• Cato estimated 21% on 2019-12-06
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2019-12-11
• Cato estimated 43% on 2020-01-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 55% on 2020-01-07
• Cato estimated 67% on 2020-01-08
• Cato estimated 74% on 2020-01-08
• stepan estimated 5% on 2020-02-24
• Cato estimated 42% on 2020-02-29
• PseudonymousUser estimated 15% on 2020-03-15
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-06-05.