[Politics] US government to announce ban on Chinese messaging, ecommerce, or web service such as WeChat, JD, Alibaba, Made-in-China, or Baidu as part of trade dispute—including conditional or postponed bans

Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-05-15; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.

• Cato estimated 4% on 2019-05-16
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2019-05-17
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-05-24
• Cato estimated 8% on 2019-05-30
• Cato estimated 9% on 2019-06-10
• Cato estimated 7% on 2019-07-09
• Cato estimated 6% on 2019-09-19
• Cato estimated 19% on 2019-10-11
• Cato said “Clarification: The ban must apply to civilian use of the product, not just (e.g.) use by military personnel.” on 2019-12-06
• Cato said “TikTok counts.” on 2019-12-06
• Cato estimated 21% on 2019-12-06
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-05-18.